Trust Me, I'm a Scientist

Science and the telly is a very heady mixture. Programmes about, or referring to, science are surprisingly popular. The general viewing public has about as much understanding of the scientific method as a lawyer has about the truth. Science-related programmes are commissioned and produced by people who aren't scientists. They're put together by the flakiest folk of all; television producers.

A television producer is mostly concerned with viewing statistics and maximum audiences. When it comes to science they think that it has to be displayed in a way that is relevant to the 'average viewer'. The average viewer is a mythical figure whose attention span and intellectual capacity is assumed to be roughly equivalent to that of a two-year-old rabbit.

Scientists (in broadcasting applications) are usually 'Professors' of something, or other, who are on the payroll of a university that is desperate for cash. These scientists have to justify their existence to the institutions that employ them by attracting funding from either commercial companies or politicians.

On a typical programme about astronomical matters, such as 'Gamma-Ray Bursts', or the 'Death of Our Sun', we are always treated to the spectacle of a 'Scientist' talking about the implications for 'Us' (meaning the survival of mankind). When we consider gamma-ray bursts, we are told that they all occur over ten billion light years away. Non have been detected in our galaxy, probably because they stopped occurring about ten billion years ago. We are not going to be wiped out by a gamma-ray burst, but we are told by a Professor (who knows better), that such an event (if close enough) would wipe us out. When we consider the death of the sun, we are told that this will happen in about 4.5 billion years' time, and we might survive by 'moving to Mars'. Mankind has been on this planet for (at most) half a million years. Life on this planet is about 3 billion years old. We know that evolution shows that our species will probably not be around (or, at least, recognisable as 'Us') in less then another half a million years. In fact, the way we are going, our survival beyond the next few hundred years is highly doubtful. Talk about us 'escaping to Mars' in billions of years' time is just rubbish. The scientists are talking utter bollocks, They must know that they're talking utter bollocks, but they do it anyway. Could that be because there's a pay-check involved?

We also often hear scientists saying that they 'believe' this or that theory. A scientist should never 'believe' anything. It is their role to always question any hypothesis. The scientific method is to suggest an 'Hypothesis' (which is only ever a 'best guess') and then to test and explore that hypothesis in an attempt to prove or disprove that guess. No proper scientist should ever assume an outcome of such enquiry, or be committed to one outcome over another. The facts are the facts and that's all a scientist should be interested in. In the field of physics, so many 'beliefs' have been exploded in the last few decades, and doubtless that process will continue. The history of science shows, time and time again, how 'established' science has rejected and vilified those who challenge that establishment. Time and time again, the 'established view' has been overthrown, only after an ugly and un-edifying public battle in which egos and 'reputations' made sure that the truth always took a back-seat to individual belief and ambition.

Scientists are like any other group of people, but they lay claim to something others groups do not lay claim to: Scientific Objectivity. Rarely do we see this in public practice.

Trust the scientists?

Time for the DDT?

If we were travelling around this corner of the galaxy with the local Galactic Quadrant Public Health Inspectors, we would possibly spot a badly infested planet. One of those cases where things are so out of hand, that the exterminators have to be called in. As with any good exterminator, their methods would probably be quite well targeted and specific for the species that is causing the damage. Some special agent, or disease organism that only kills the problem species.

The control tool of choice would probably be an extremely virulent disease that kills only the species in question, leaving all the other species intact and giving them a chance to recover. On the other hand, it may be deemed expedient to simply sterilise the place altogether as the risk of allowing the infestation to spread throughout the galaxy may be just too horrific to consider.

The infestation we may have spotted is on a pretty blue planet called Earth, and the organism that has reproduced out of control, is a particularly nasty one: 'Homo Sapiens'. Let it get off the planet, and there's no telling how much damage it could do to the rest of the galaxy.

When I was a teenager, there was plenty of international debate and calls for action on 'Population Control'. The increasing population was already being seen as unsustainable. Now we worry about 'Climate Change' and 'Deforestation'. The sad fact is that both these phenomena are driven by population pressure. There are too many people on this planet. That is an inescapable fact, and a fact that is at the root of all our other global problems.

Any debate about other global matters that does not address population growth is an exercise in verbal masturbation.

Nature has a way of dealing with imbalances. Perhaps the Galactic Pest Controller will not have to act. Perhaps Mother Nature will come up with a solution of her own. Whatever - the correction will not be a pleasant experience.

One thing is as sure as eggs: Mankind is utterly incapable of coming up with an answer before something cataclysmic kicks off.

From the Silversmith's Bench:

There is slush where the snow used to be. The workshop is freezing and the tools are too cold for my delicate digits. (Never could work in gloves!). As a result, the jewellery bench in the front room is busy. Got to do something for god's sake.

I've been hacking 'OM' symbols out of lumps of pure silver. Every time I make one I give it away. It just doesn't feel right to make 'Oms' for money. You can't give a silver 'Om' to anyone. They've got to be ready for it. The timing has to be right. So far, each recipient has been really jazzed. I always supply the right sized silver chain so it can go to work right away.

I use silver for it's white purity and because it's not so intrinsically valuable. Somehow, 'Oms' shouldn't be flash.

I know that Will, my dearest younger Son, is getting engaged in many meaningful conversations springing from the big one he wears, as he travels throughout the East. The Orientals see that about his neck and ask him:

" Do you know what that is? Do you know what it means?"

I think, at first, they take a little offence, thinking they are seeing a tourist wearing a bauble they don't comprehend. I can understand that. Will does know what he's wearing and why. I'm sure it's opened a few human intercultural doors.

What is the 'Om'?

On a musical instrument, there is one note from which all others are generated by the physics of harmonics. This note is called 'the Fundamental'.
It's the lowest and strongest note the instrument can produce. 'Om' is the fundamental note of the universe. The cosmic vibration from which all arises.

In Western cosmology we have come to understand that once these was a tiny tiny thing called a 'Singularity', which expanded around 13 billion years ago and spawned our universe. In eastern philosophy there is the central 'Witness'; the singularity at the centre of consciousness. To the oriental mind, this is also a creator. The creator of our inner universe.

'Om', the fundamental note, is the sound of those singularities. The basic vibration from which all things spring. Everything else, inside or out, is a harmonic vibration arising from the 'Om'. It is the symbol of our oneness with the universe.

"I am that- That I am " is a literal verbal translation of So'ham - Ham'sah.

Listen!

'Om' the primal sound.

“In the beginning there was the Word"

I wonder who's going to get the next one off the bench?

MEDITATION DE-MYSTIFIED

I’ve had a few requests to say something about meditation. Here’s an attempt to produce something that’s useful to the more cynical Western mind, without the deep and unfathomable jargon that often surrounds the subject.

When my Guru (yes I had a Guru!) was asked:
“How does one meditate?”
He used to reply,
“When you sit down to meditate, whatever you do, don’t think of a monkey.”

So you sit down to meditate and what’s the first thing you think about? You’ve got it; A MONKEY. The point he was making is that it doesn’t matter what your mind happens to be thinking of. Meditation is not about controlling your mind, it’s about observing what it gets up to.

If you think about what happens when you’re dreaming, there’s a part of you constructing the dream, and another part that is experiencing, watching (witnessing?) the experience. This is what in Eastern understanding is known as ‘The Witness’ or ‘Witness Consciousness’. The very act of observing your inner goings on, in an objective way, makes you aware of this part of your being.

Meditation is a practice (and that’s a very good word for it) of observing the inner universe. As Westerners, we tend to be very good at observing the Universe out there. And why not? The external universe is amazing, fascinating and full of wonders. If you think about what your own mind can conjour up, both in external observation, (which has to be handled internally to make any sense), and in internal stuff, like the immense possibilities of dreams, the ‘Inner Universe’ is just as enormously gob-smackingly huge as the Outer one.

‘Meditation' is about watching and observing the inner Universe. A universe every bit as worthy of study and exploration as the external one.

So what’s the trick? Eastern philosophies mention and use things called ‘Mantras’ as a means of getting into ‘observation mode’. Unfortunately many of us Westerners find repetition of word-based mantras very difficult and often it actually distracts the attention away from simply ‘watching' all the goings on.

There is one ‘Mantra'. (and I’m not sure calling it a ‘Mantra' truly helps), that does not require repetition of words. It merely requires an act of observation. This meditation tool is known as So’Ham or Ham’Sa. Which of those you choose depends solely on where you happen to begin.

There is one sound that is always with you as long as you are alive. That sound is the sound of your own breathing. No breathing- no living. A non-breathing person, is generally referred to as ‘dead’. So as long as you aren’t, in fact, dead, your breath keeps on chugging in and chugging out. Most of the time we are completely oblivious to our breathing, except when we’ve been exercising very hard or when we are in very very quiet places. Even so, it’s always there, going in, going out. At any time, we can listen to it, if we’re so inclined.

Try shutting your eyes and listening to the natural sound of your breath. Don’t work at ‘breathing’ just listen to the sound as your breathing proceeds on its automatic course.

As the air comes in it makes a kind of ‘Humming' sound. As it goes out, the sound is more of a ‘sigh’ or a ‘Sahhh’. Don’t take my word for this. Close your eyes, listen to the sound and you’ll hear it for your self. This is ‘Ham’Sa”. If you start listening on the out-breath, it becomes ‘Sah’Hamm’. Hence the two names for the same thing.

This tool for getting into observation mode is very easy, always with you, wherever you are and whatever you happen to be doing. All that is required is to listen. Listening is a very concentrated form of observation. This ‘Maha Mantra’ as the Siddhas of the East call it, is the simplest and most ‘portable' method of meditation. I won’t go into the wonders that will be revealed as your inner journey of exploration goes forth, not here at least.

All I can say is try it. Practice it. (Practice in any new skill is always helpful.). It’s value will be blindingly obvious. After a while, your breathing may start doing weird things. Don't try to control that - observe, watch, experience. This is no harder than watching TV.

By the way, watch out for little Blue Lights!

CHANGING TIMES

Today came a report from the top of the world. The Arctic Ice-Cap is disappearing much faster than was expected. Instead of disappearing (in summer) in fifty years’ time, we are now looking at ten to fifteen years. Boy, are the polar bears in trouble!

This is yet more evidence of a climate-change event we call ‘Global Warming’. There is a large body of evidence to say that this is a man-made event. There are those, in scientific circles who maintain that it’s mostly a natural, cyclical, event. Either way, the planet is getting warmer.

When we look at the long-term history of climate-change events, both cooling and warming, we can tell (from studying ancient ice-cores and geology) that major climate change has never been gradual. It seems that the climate has a habit of ‘tipping’ from one state to another in a few decades. This is because the climate is a very delicate interwoven structure where relatively small changes cause ‘cascades’ of events.

This is where we seem to be now. The loss of thousands of square miles of floating ice won’t have a huge effect on sea levels. It’s when the ice that sits on land melts and adds to the volume of the oceans that levels will be radically affected. However that huge expanse of floating ice (which is also disappearing in the Antarctic) reflects a huge amount of sunlight back into space. The result is a lot more solar energy staying in the atmosphere. The earth warms a little more, the oceans heat up a little more (liquids, by the way, expand when heated) and the sea levels rise a little more.

As the Northern climate heats up, just a little, and as the winters get milder, the Northern Tundra is retreating. On the positive side, releasing vast expanses of relatively unproductive land for agricultural use, on the negative side, causing the permafrost to melt.

The permafrost is a deep layer of surface soil that, just a metre or so from the surface, stays frozen all year round. If you live far enough north, you can freeze your food by digging a hole and putting it in. Free refrigeration! This layer of earth is full of vegetable matter that has never fully broken down, because its frozen state prevents the bacteria in the soil from going to work. As the soil melts, the vegetable matter starts to rot and break down. This process releases methane gas. Methane is a very powerful greenhouse gas. Methane makes carbon dioxide look like pretty tame stuff, when it comes to greenhouse gasses. Kilo for kilo, methane has between twenty and twenty five times the climate effect of CO2. The more methane is released, the faster the permafrost melts, and the methane release accelerates. This is already happening. If you take a look at the globe, the Northern Tundra (and therefore the permafrost) is huge. The amount of methane about to be released is enormous.

And so it goes, one small event triggers a slightly larger one. Then that event triggers others. This is what’s known as a ‘cascade’. Cascades have a habit of starting slow and small then accelerating, at an ever increasing rate, until they become huge. The cascade has begun. The climate is going to tip, and tip very quickly. I’m nearly 60 and I will see it unfold before I pop my clogs. My children’s generation will experience the consequences, and the flora and fauna of the planet are headed for a mass-extinction event.

Of course, the planet will survive. Mass extinctions are nothing new. The long –term result will be the same old planet, populated by a plethora of new species. So why worry?

I worry because when countries drown, huge shifts occur in agricultural production and coastlines change, massive geo-political pressures will doubtless be generated. There will be a whole new balance of ‘Haves’ and ‘Have-Nots’. There will be big winners and big losers. This is the kind of event that starts wars. World wars.

We’ve lived for many decades in a world where global cataclysms haven’t occurred. My parents’ and grandparents’ generations lived through two of them. We seem to think it can’t happen to us. I think it most certainly can, and probably will. My offspring are going to go through some extreme times. They will need to learn to be survivors, fighters and many things they have not been brought up to be, if their off-spring are to survive and floursish.

There are many things we could do to slow-down, and eventually reverse, climate change (man-made or not). All of these things we could have started thirty or forty years ago, but we didn’t. There will now be no way of avoiding the cascade, it has already begun.

The planet will survive. The human race will survive. Many creatures won’t survive. In the meantime, things are going to get very dodgy indeed.

SEARCHING FOR THE (Y)SETI

S.E.T.I: The Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence. All around the world, the biggest radio telescopes we have are spending much of their time in an internationally funded drive to discover intelligent life beyond our planet. Ask any of the astronomers involved and they’ll tell you why it’s so important. They want to answer the question ‘are we unique?’ Is mankind special to the point that we are the only technological capable beings around? This search, of course, is another of those science-versus-spirit things and it could be the biggest boondoggle since the London Dome. (Boondoggle: American slang for a useless and expensive project designed to divert public funds into personal pockets). What they are doing is listening for very faint radio signals that are unmistakeably generated by an alien technology, and, at the same time they are beaming signals into deep space to let others know we are here.

While all this is going on, we are searching for signs of primitive life on other planets and moons in the solar system. Several Mars probes have gone the tens of millions of miles to soft-land on Mars and test rocks for traces of bacteria.

So why is S.E.T.I. a ‘boondoggle’? It’s a boondoggle for two reasons: First; the question about other life and other civilisations can be answered by sitting in your armchair and doing some simple sums with some very, very big numbers in them. Second; Even if such a civilisation does exist, there is no way they’ll ever spot us. Not, at least, until we’re long gone from the planet.

The universe is big, mind-bogglingly big. So big, in fact that we’ve had to come up with a way of describing and measuring the distances involved. What we use is a unit of distance called a ‘light year’. It’s not a measurement of time, although it has big implications relating to time, it’s a very big version of a metre or a yard. We know that, in this universe, at least, light travels at a constant speed; 186,000 miles PER SECOND. We also know that that’s as fast as anything can go. So you can relate that to Michael Schumacher’s Ferrari, that’s six thousand six hundred and ninety six point six million miles per hour. It’s very, very fast. A particle of light is called a photon. Photons always zoom about at that speed. When a photon leaves the sun, it takes about ten minutes to get to earth. That’s covering about 93million miles in ten minutes. We can call that distance (93million miles) ‘ten light-minutes’. A light-year is how far that photon can go in one year, and that’s actually 5,865,696,000,000 miles, and that’s a very silly number (it’s a lot easier, and it takes up less space on the page, to call that distance One Light-Year).

So a light-year is a shorthand way of calibrating very big distances. Our speed crazy little photon is not only the fastest thing around, it’s also a bit of a time-machine as well. Actually it’s not so much a ‘time machine’ as a ‘time-o-scope’. It let’s you look back in time. Unfortunately it only works for looking back, so you can’t use it for winning the lottery next week. Let’s go back to the fact that it takes this photon (small bit of light) ten minutes to get from the surface of the sun to the back of your eyeball. That means that you are seeing the sun now as it was ten minutes ago. If you were an alien on a planet sixty five light years away and you had a super long distance radio, you could hear Winston Churchill deliver his ‘finest hour’ speech LIVE as it happened. So when we see a star which is ten light-years away, we are seeing it as it was ten years ago. We can’t know if it’s actually there right now, in fact it could have just this minute blown up, but we’ll have to wait ten years to see the bang!

So what does this have to do with boondoggles? We send out a signal, a radio signal that is made of photons. Off they go at 186,000 miles per second. In a hundred years they will have travelled a hundred light-years, and that’s not far by cosmic standards. In fact they’ve probably not quite made it as far as the corner shop in our cosmic neighbourhood. There aren’t many stars (with planets) that close. The odds of one of that handful of planets having a population that can pick up our greeting are nil, zero, none what-so-ever. Let’s assume, by some miracle, that there is a planet (planet ‘Zog’) one hundred light-years away which has its radio tuned in to planet Earth. The Zogians could pick up one of our earliest radio broadcasts, maybe. If their radio is not quite so sensitive they’ll have to wait a hundred years until one of the signals we’re sending NOW will get there. They are also into boondoggles, so they’re listening for it. Aha! “There is life out there”, they say, “Let’s reply so we can say hello.” Of course they want to use the fastest means possible, because they can’t wait to see if their ‘X Factor’ is better than ours. So they send off the fastest thing they’ve got; our speedy little friend, the photon. One hundred years later the photon arrives and we get the reply. That’s two hundred years to say ‘Hello’. It could take an awfully long time to check out ‘X Factor’ on planet Zog.

We’ll come back to this very pedestrian inter-stellar conversation later.

Let’s go back to whether or not there is intelligent life out there. (Even it’s so far away that we can’t communicate with it very well.) It’s time to look at some more mega-numbers:

The Earth orbits the sun, which is a bog-standard average type star. Out of about ten planets orbiting our star, only one has a technological society. We can tell from looking around our bit of our galaxy (that’s a bunch of stars hanging out together), that most stars don’t have planets, but quite a few do. Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that only one in ten stars has any planets. Let’s also say that watery earth-type planets that are just the right distance from their star to neither freeze nor boil are pretty rare, say one star in a million that do have planets, has got a planet that could support life as we know it. That means the odds of such a planet orbiting a star are one in ten million. That certainly looks like very long odds. Especially if we also reckon that, even with the right kind of planet, only one in another million actually has managed to produce technology. So now the odds are one in TEN MILLION MILLION, that’s ten thousand billion.

There are, at present best estimates, one hundred billion stars in our galaxy. So from those odds, we probably are the only planet in our galaxy with technology based on life as we know it. By our odds, we’d have to search one hundred galaxies to find our target. How many Galaxies are there out there? At best estimates there are two hundred billion that we could possibly see and many more that are so far away we’ll never see them. So if we searched two hundred billion galaxies we should find (by our crude odds) two billion earth-type planets with technological societies. Two billion!

Is there intelligent life out there? Of course there is. Save your money and use your telescopes for something more useful. We’ve figured it out without so much as a PhD in astrophysics!

Now let’s say there is a civilisation in a galaxy not too far away. The nearest galaxy is 250 thousand light years away. It’s a tiny little thing called Canis Major (big dog) and it’s what’s known as a dwarf galaxy. It’s not so much a big dog as a small rodent in galactic terms. So we’ll probably have to look a bit further than that. If we get lucky we might strike it rich in a galaxy quite close to use, say, ten million light years away. If we remember our conversation with the Zogians that was taking two hundred years (just to shake hands and say ‘hello’), we are now looking at twenty million years to do just that. In other words, it’s not worth the effort. We know they’re out there and we know we can’t ever talk to them or ever meet up.

The Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence? Boondoggle!